Sunday, 11 November 2012

Some opinions presented as facts. What's going on at Arsenal?

- It is profoundly odd to argue this Arsenal team is not a mediocre Arsenal team. That we were an incredibly poor side in the 1950s and 60s somewhat misses the point, for two reasons: it's not short-term thinking to compare the team with the last 20 years - that's a reasonable data-set - and this is the worst Arsenal side in that period, at least on form.

But more importantly, the mediocrity needs to be viewed in context: when you have the fourth largest wage bill in the League, the team should be performing much better.

- That said, the argument going around at the moment that we cannot hold a lead is patently false: it is unfortunate to blow a two goal lead twice in a week. The fact remains though that the only other time this season we have been pegged back after taking the lead was the ridiculous match against Reading. It is simply untrue to say we cannot hold a lead.

- Explaining the lack of defensive stability is difficult. It's easy to blame the goalkeeper but he was in goal at the beginning of the season when we were more solid. Certainly, losing Gibbs to injury has not helped, and Thomas Vermaelen has not played well this season, but the biggest issue has been losing Abou Diaby.

Diaby would sit in front of the defence and contest all the aerial balls, meaning that Koscielny/Vermaelen/Mertesacker could do what they do well - mopping up all the loose balls and winning the ball on the ground. Mikel Arteta, for his many strengths, cannot do that and what the table below shows is that although we're conceding maybe one more shot on target per game than when Diaby was fit, a much higher proportion are going in.

It's a little simplistic to blame it solely on Diaby's injury - Mannone has made some clangers and there's been a series of defensive mistakes - but teams have been getting chances which are easier to convert and that's certainly partly because we're not competing in the air; it's also shown by us repeatedly conceding from set pieces since he went off injured against Chelsea.

- Even so, before this week, nobody would really have accused this Arsenal team of leaking goals. At current rates, we're projected to concede about 38 goals this seasons, which whilst nowhere near good enough to win the League would be a staunch improvement on last season. The problems with the defence have been over-hyped - get Szczesny, a keeper the defence trust, back in goal and the players in front of him will play better and the keeper will also save more of the shots on target.

Obviously we're a much stronger team when Diaby plays - but that's a bit like saying we would have scored more goals in the last six seasons if Van Persie had always been fit. It's true, but completely irrelevant, because neither Diaby or Van Persie are players whose fitness can be relied upon.

- So what's the problem? It's basically the midfield and attack. Not exactly a small problem then.

All the midfield players are too similar, which puts a massive onus on Cazorla to create chances. When Wilshere and Rosicky are back playing properly that will be less of an issue, but the lack of another player who can create chances is an enormous problem. It's why - I suspect - Wenger persists with picking Aaron Ramsey: at least he tries to create chances. For all we mocked Alex Song and his chipped through balls, he still had the most assists at the club last season - and that from what was ostensibly the holding midfield role. Compare and contrast with Mikel Arteta.

Our forwards' conversion rates are not bad, but we don't create enough for them.

It's especially galling because one of the reasons we're weak defensively is that Walcott and Podolski don't defend anywhere near as much as they should do. In theory, this should mean they're in great positions for counter-attacks but it's just not happening. That particularly irritates me because Andrey Arshavin does create chances (where Podolski doesn't) but isn't allowed to play because of his supposed lack of defensive nous.

The wingers just aren't particularly good players - Chamberlain's done nothing all season, Gervinho couldn't cross a ball if he was paid to (oh wait, he is), Walcott's decision-making is awful and his new thing is shooting when he should cross to prove he should play up front, and I'm very confused as to what Lukas Podolski actually does.

I like Olivier Giroud but even Robin van Persie - the best player in the League last season - struggled with this motley bunch, so he's not exactly in an easy situation.

- This really hits at the key problem at Arsenal - and why so many fans are unhappy. Yeah, the ticket prices are high but London is one of the most expensive cities in the world and ticket prices are also high at Chelsea and Tottenham and it's a complete straw man to keep on bringing up ticket prices as a reason the fans are unhappy, not least because the stadium is (still) consistently sold out.

It's inconsistent to complain about the club not extracting enough from sponsorship deals and then complaining about the tickets being overpriced: the club does not care about the individual supporter and no Premier League club does - when you're turning over tens or hundreds of millions of pounds, one fan not spending a thousand pounds is unimportant.

As long as the stadium remains full, the board - rightly - will not care about ticket prices.

But the real problem is then not spending the money from the gate receipts on players: when we challenged for the League in 2010 we had Nasri, Fabregas, Song and Van Persie; instead, we now have Podolski, Cazorla, Arteta and Giroud - not bad footballers, but nowhere near as good as their predecessors who (lest we forget) didn't manage to win anything. So where we needed to move forward, we've actually regressed.

And alongside them, there's a series of very average players - Vermaelen, Ramsey, Chamberlain, Coquelin, Walcott - and some absolute dross.

The great irony is that a few years back we were praising the medium-priced players Wenger was signing (Eduardo, Sagna, Nasri, Arshavin) and asking for more of them. The difference then was the quality of the young players coming through was much higher - people of the calibre of Clichy, Song, Fabregas (and the slightly older) Van Persie came through to play for the first team and were key players.

Because these days the young players are nowhere near as good, the need to go out and spend on the top young players - like, for example, Juan Mata - is tremendous, but the board/the manager appear to be ignoring it. And therefore, we will only challenge for the top four, if we're lucky.

- To come full circle and go back to the original point about the wage bill, there's an argument often made that the only reason teams want our top players is because they're very talented.

That's true. But the reason teams don't want our squad players - despite them being quite talented - is because of their wages. It's something which needs to be sorted out, because although our wage bill is large, it's artificially large as it doesn't represent the strength of the squad. And that's the reason we may well finish outside the top four.

Keep the faith.


itti said...

I will never wish ill for arsenal, but maybe its not a bad idea if we miss the CL this year.
Something has to Change, lets face the facts, its very difficult to return to top if you go out of top 4 spot, take liverpool + spuds as example. but its clear as the sun that this management are clueless ( from owner to coach )
Yes i blame Wenger, if he really cared enough for the club. and if it was really like what some ppl say that its all because of the board. well if he wants to keep his great image he would step down. instead of helping these bunch of making loads of money...

since win 4th position is a cup!!!

I am not asking them to out spend there means, but atleast spend the money WE ACTUALLY make, bring an OWNER who gives a fucking damn about the club, or least knows the starting eleven of them..

in which universe you would sell a player to someone in your league!!! what did we do with that 24 million pounds ?? what are we doing with all that cash setting in the banks ?

if we had no plans on spending van persie money, why we didnt simply keep him this year, that would made our team stronger than last year

Can someone tell me in the last 7 years, was there a year where you can say our team is stronger than previous team ??

we somehow find a way to get worse... no one is bigger than the club, so why no one is talking about our tactics, i have never seen arsenal this bad on the pitch, not even before winger days, we do have good players, just feel like half of them are clueless to what to do or where to run, who;s fault is that?

Change has to happen, and if fans dont pressure the club, it will never happen.

Wenger said judge us after 10 games, well your 10 games are over, can he tell us how he Judge himself ? what excuse him and the board for the shit is happening. we used to be compared to barcelona, now teams like reading score 5 goals on us....

I was in the manchester game this year, and i felt no different than last year 8 - 2. we played the same shit way as last year, only difference is MU players didnt bother to try harder, even there fans didnt sing or feel any kind of pressure, our players simply didnt even have basics of tactics in that game, from the 5th minute the game was over... we were never like that, and i will never accept that. yes you can compete with millions spent by man city, but in the end man utd are doing it and they are carrying a 40 million dept each year to pay,
actually if you take each team midfield in last game player by player, i can only see our team is better, but the players are totally lost....

sube said...

It had been long time coming. The bubble is just bursting.